Trump’s path to the White House

In light of Trump closing the gap from Clinton in the polls, CNN drew six possible scenarios where he ends up in the Oval Office.
Is this his way to victory? Photo credit: Reuters/ Channel 2 News

The race for the White House has become much tighter over the past two weeks. Although the Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton continues to lead in most polls and her chances of winning seem much higher, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has narrowed the gap and his possibility of reaching the White House is stronger than before.

According to the polls, CNN states that for the first time in a long time Clinton has dropped from 270 electoral votes and draws 6 possible scenarios through which Trump could end up in the Oval Office.  

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CNN's current electoral map Photo credit: CNN/ Channel 2 News

No mistakes- According to the polls, this is Trump’s best chance but also the scenario in which he has no margin for error. In this scenario Trump must win all the states which Mitt Romney won in the race to the White House in 2012 in addition to Florida, Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire- which Obama won 4 years ago. If Trump can manage to get all these states, he will reach exactly the 270 electoral votes required to win.

Working-class white’s majority- This is Trump’s favorite scenario since he breaks Clinton’s Democratic rule over states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania where she has a clear lead in the polls. According to this scenario in which the votes of the white working-class are especially high, he could win without states where the race is tighter such as Nevada or New Hampshire and may even end up reaching 290 electoral votes.  

Who will win the swing states? Photo credit: Reuters/ Channel 2 News

Clinton loses to third party- Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado are states with a high percentage of voters not belonging to one of the major parties. In order to win these states Clinton needs the votes of Republican-leaning voters who do not feel comfortable voting for Trump. If these votes end up going to Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson it could cost Clinton her victory. In this scenario Trump could win 275 electoral votes. 

Low African-American votes-According to early vote counts in North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia, the number of African-American voters will be lower than that of previous elections. This could aid Trump in the three states as well as Michigan where a large percentage of voters of the Democratic Party are from the African-American population.

 

Will Johnson surprise? Photo credit: Reuters/ Channel 2 News

Low Latino votes- A decrease in Latino votes could lead to a much tighter race in several western states. In this scenario Trump could win Arizona and have a better chance of winning Florida, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.

Suburbs pro-Trump- According to this scenario, Trump does much better than expected amongst suburban residents and middle class voters and wins Maine and New Hampshire. However, his biggest victory would be Philadelphia, giving him 287 electoral votes.


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