Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the leading members of the White House coronavirus task force, has warned that without adequate prevention measures, US deaths from COVID-19 could double in the fall and winter months.

“The models tell us if we don’t do what we need to in the fall and winter, we could have 300,000-400,000 COVID-19 deaths,” Fauci, who heads the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the US National Institutes of Health said in a Thursday web event hosted by American University.

According to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the US has not registered fewer than 13,000 new COVID-19 cases per day since March 24, when the initial outbreak in the United States was still accelerating, hitting a low of 13,284 per day on May 17.

The daily low in reported deaths was 175 on September 7; the last time it was that low was on March 23, and the average has remained far higher. On October 6, the seven-day moving average was 694 deaths per day.